A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
